Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 190.254627 230.941598 281.342476 349.509325 441.121088 5.627508e+02 7.413971e+02
2025-04-27 149.197695 198.419373 267.659805 376.347465 551.200867 8.389043e+02 1.392441e+03
2025-05-04 124.880963 176.690334 256.340053 395.965490 655.159405 1.169048e+03 2.457214e+03
2025-05-11 107.670885 159.515964 244.785634 407.976478 749.701375 1.552356e+03 4.190081e+03
2025-05-18 94.113628 144.483449 231.846489 411.456028 828.425682 1.972725e+03 6.951305e+03
2025-05-25 82.524253 130.209167 216.415395 404.138619 879.215711 2.376881e+03 1.102167e+04
2025-06-01 72.930459 117.635410 201.226375 392.187797 912.783791 2.775311e+03 1.717428e+04
2025-06-08 65.107856 106.978371 187.539335 379.361578 938.141608 3.189464e+03 2.697393e+04
2025-06-15 63.150109 106.815962 194.728016 418.627506 1148.065876 4.793023e+03 8.221036e+04
2025-06-22 58.605037 100.973782 188.798815 422.627315 1245.242844 6.069802e+03 2.104723e+05
2025-06-29 55.436607 97.392834 187.108061 437.781656 1399.359158 8.249598e+03 9.783579e+05
2025-07-06 51.430877 91.584292 179.331686 433.085057 1470.451049 1.009142e+04 5.992009e+06
2025-07-13 50.309455 91.801775 186.145842 477.051323 1822.719317 1.739348e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 48.763539 90.912500 190.195986 514.830791 2206.329496 3.050824e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 46.897136 89.053497 191.433708 544.049220 2596.417918 5.391429e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 44.754108 86.284607 189.748432 562.233982 2955.052353 9.424818e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 42.375935 82.683927 185.156407 567.525462 3236.184957 1.580615e+05 NaN
2025-08-17 39.724590 78.153953 177.233399 556.374163 3366.474218 2.353440e+05 NaN
2025-08-24 37.132465 73.513873 168.323215 538.225240 3412.716557 3.285576e+05 NaN
2025-08-31 34.759300 69.182650 159.710725 518.831353 3427.396057 4.516057e+05 NaN
2025-09-07 34.671231 70.389256 167.591668 578.476316 4503.304239 3.517393e+06 NaN
2025-09-14 33.228244 68.086253 164.486801 584.596963 4946.861243 1.913356e+07 NaN
2025-09-21 32.263131 66.890284 164.643832 607.860238 5760.461420 5.053685e+10 NaN